Sulfur supply chain analysis

Large-scale SAI deployment would require substantial quantities of sulfur compounds—potentially thousands to millions of tonnes annually depending on the injection strategy pursued. Before committing to deployment, decision-makers must understand whether adequate global supplies exist, what the costs would be at different deployment scales, and what logistical infrastructure would be required. Currently, these fundamental feasibility questions remain unanswered. Different deployment strategies—varying in geographic location, injection magnitude, timing, and duration—would have vastly different supply chain demands and cost implications. A comprehensive analysis of the sulfur supply chain is therefore essential to determine which deployment scenarios are actually feasible given resource constraints, and to provide transparent cost information to stakeholders and policymakers. This analysis enables informed decision-making about whether and how to proceed beyond aerosol evolution and transport experimentation. This research will help reduce the Ground Infrastructure uncertainty.

This activity involves a detailed assessment of global sulfur supply chains and their capacity to support SAI deployment at various scales. The work includes: (1) inventorying global production capacity for elemental sulfur, SO2, and alternative sulfur precursors, and identifying geographic distribution of production and storage infrastructure; (2) modeling supply chain requirements for multiple deployment scenarios spanning a range of injection magnitudes, durations, and geographic distributions; (3) assessing logistical feasibility and costs for transport, storage, and delivery of sulfur precursors to deployment locations and aircraft; (4) conducting economic analysis of deployment costs as a function of scale, including material costs, transport, handling, and infrastructure development; (5) identifying potential supply chain bottlenecks or constraints that could limit deployment options; and (6) evaluating whether alternative sulfur precursors might offer cost or logistical advantages.

The analysis should explicitly compare costs across different deployment strategies to help decision-makers understand trade-offs between deployment scale, duration, and cost. The final deliverable should provide a transparent, evidence-based assessment of deployment feasibility and costs sufficient to inform pre-deployment policy and investment decisions.